Common Last Man Standing Mistakes to Avoid
Every season, thousands of LMS players are eliminated due to avoidable mistakes. Learn from others' errors and give yourself the best chance of survival.
Mistake #1: Using Your Best Team in Gameweek 1
The most common error of all. Yes, Liverpool away at a newly-promoted side looks like a banker. But consider:
- Everyone picks them, so there's no competitive advantage
- You're using your best asset when alternatives exist
- Early season is unpredictable (teams finding form, new signings settling)
Mistake #2: Ignoring the Fixture Calendar
Failing to look ahead is fatal. Players often pick excellent options for individual weeks without considering the bigger picture.
Example scenario: You use Arsenal (home vs. Leicester), City (home vs. Wolves), and Liverpool (home vs. Southampton) in consecutive weeks. All win.
But now it's GW28, and your remaining options are:
- Chelsea away at Arsenal
- Newcastle away at Liverpool
- Aston Villa away at City
Better approach: Before using any top-6 team, check their fixtures for the next 5+ gameweeks and ensure you're not closing off future options.
Mistake #3: Trusting In-Form Teams Over Fixtures
Form is temporary. Fixtures are forever.
A team on a 5-game winning streak might seem unstoppable, but fixture difficulty trumps everything. An in-form Brentford away at Liverpool is still a worse pick than an out-of-form Newcastle at home to Ipswich.
Key principle: Prioritize fixture difficulty over recent results. Odds typically account for form anyway.
Mistake #4: Picking Based on Emotional Attachment
"I'm a United fan, and they always beat City at home." This kind of thinking has eliminated more LMS players than any other factor.
Your emotional connection to a team clouds judgment. The bookmakers and the market don't care about your feelings - they price based on probability.
Solution: Remove your team from consideration entirely, or at least give their picks extra scrutiny.
Mistake #5: Following the Crowd
Checking forums, Twitter, and tipster sites for "consensus picks" is dangerous for two reasons:
When 70% of players pick the same team and they lose, 70% of the competition is eliminated in one week. Sometimes being contrarian is survival.
Balance: Consider popular opinion but don't follow it blindly. If you disagree with consensus, trust your analysis.
Mistake #6: Ignoring Midweek Matches
Fixture congestion is a killer. Teams playing Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday often:
- Rotate key players
- Show fatigue in the third game
- Underperform against expectations
- Champions League fixtures
- Europa League games
- FA Cup replays
- Rescheduled league matches
Mistake #7: Forgetting About Team News
Making your pick on Monday and not checking team news by Saturday kickoff is negligent. Key injuries can dramatically shift probabilities.
Examples that changed outcomes:
- Star striker ruled out with illness (discovered Friday)
- Key defender suspended (accumulation, announced Thursday)
- Manager rotation for tactical reasons (announced 1 hour before)
Mistake #8: Overcomplicating Analysis
Paralysis by analysis is real. Some players spend hours comparing xG, defensive metrics, possession stats, and historical head-to-head records.
Reality check: Bookmaker odds already incorporate all this data and more. A simple probability comparison based on odds is usually sufficient.
Keep it simple:
That's 90% of the analysis you need.
Mistake #9: Chasing Losses
After an unexpected elimination in one pool, players often take bigger risks in their remaining pools to "make up for it."
Each pool is independent. The optimal strategy doesn't change based on what happened in other competitions.
Mindset: Treat each decision independently. If conservative play is correct, stay conservative regardless of other results.
Mistake #10: Not Having a Backup Plan
Sometimes your intended pick is postponed, or last-minute news makes them risky. Without a backup, you're forced into hasty decisions.
Best practice: Always have a backup pick researched and ready. If your primary is Man City at home, know that Newcastle at home is your Plan B.
Quick Reference: The Do's and Don'ts
DO:
- Plan at least 5 gameweeks ahead
- Check team news before kickoff
- Use odds as your primary guide
- Save top teams for critical weeks
- Have a backup pick ready
DON'T:
- Use Liverpool in Gameweek 1
- Pick based on emotional attachment
- Ignore fixture congestion
- Follow the crowd blindly
- Overcomplicate your analysis
Conclusion
LMS success isn't about picking winners every week - it's about avoiding elimination. By learning from these common mistakes, you significantly improve your chances of being the last one standing. Good luck!