Last Man Standing Strategy Guide 2024/25

Last Man Standing (LMS) is one of the most popular football prediction competitions in the UK. The concept is simple: pick one team each week to win their match, but you can only use each team once throughout the season. If your team fails to win, you're eliminated.

Understanding the Basics

Before diving into advanced strategies, let's establish the fundamental rules:

• One pick per week: You must select exactly one team each gameweek
• Each team can only be used once: Once you've picked Arsenal, you cannot pick them again all season
• Win or go home: Your selected team must win (not draw) for you to survive
• Last one standing wins: The competition continues until one player remains

The Two Main Approaches

1. The Greedy Approach (Week-by-Week)

The greedy strategy focuses on maximizing your chances of survival each individual week. You look at the current gameweek's fixtures and pick the team with the highest probability of winning.

Pros:

• Simple to execute
• Maximizes short-term survival
• Less research required

Cons:

• May "waste" top teams on easy fixtures
• Doesn't account for future fixture difficulty
• Can leave you with poor options late in the season

2. The Long-Term Optimization Approach

This strategy looks at the entire remaining season and plans your picks accordingly. You identify "critical gameweeks" where options are limited and reserve strong teams for those weeks.

Pros:

• Better resource management
• Higher overall survival probability
• Avoids late-season disasters

Cons:

• Requires more research and planning
• Riskier individual weeks
• More complex to execute

Key Strategic Principles

Save the Big Six Wisely

The "Big Six" teams (Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United) are your most valuable assets. Use them when:

They have a clear advantage (home vs. relegation candidates)

Other options are limited

The fixture difficulty warrants it

Identify Critical Gameweeks

Look ahead at the fixture list and identify weeks where:

• Top teams play each other (reducing your options)
• Multiple strong teams have away fixtures
• International breaks affect team form

Home Advantage Matters

Home teams win approximately 45% of Premier League matches, compared to 30% for away teams. When possible, favor home picks, especially for mid-table sides where the advantage is more pronounced.

Form vs. Fixtures

A team in good form is always tempting, but fixture difficulty should be your primary consideration. A struggling Man City at home to Southampton is still a safer pick than an in-form Fulham away at Liverpool.

Season Phases Strategy

Early Season (GW 1-10)

• Use mid-table teams with favorable home fixtures
• Save top teams for later
• Accept slightly lower probabilities to preserve resources

Mid Season (GW 11-25)

• Start using your big guns strategically
• Account for fixture congestion (cups, European football)
• Monitor team form and injury news

Late Season (GW 26-38)

• Use remaining top teams for tough weeks
• Consider relegation implications
• Teams with "nothing to play for" can be unpredictable

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Using Liverpool in GW1: Everyone does this. Save them for when you really need them.

Ignoring fixture congestion: Teams playing midweek Champions League may rotate or fatigue.

Chasing early picks: Don't pick City because "everyone else will." Your survival is what matters.

Forgetting about cup replays: FA Cup can cause fixture rearrangements.

Not checking team news: Injuries to key players significantly affect win probability.

Using Odds to Your Advantage

Bookmaker odds represent the market's assessment of win probabilities. A team with odds of 1.20 has an implied probability of about 83% to win.

Quick probability conversion:

• 1.10 odds = 91% probability
• 1.25 odds = 80% probability
• 1.50 odds = 67% probability
• 2.00 odds = 50% probability

Generally, aim for picks with implied probabilities above 65% to maintain reasonable survival chances.

Conclusion

The best LMS strategy combines elements of both approaches: use the greedy method as a baseline but adjust based on future fixture analysis. Always have a plan for the next 4-5 gameweeks, and don't be afraid to take calculated risks when the long-term picture demands it.

Good luck this season!