Premier League Home Advantage: The Numbers Every LMS Player Must Know

Home advantage is one of football's most enduring truths. But in the modern Premier League, how significant is it really? And more importantly, how should it influence your Last Man Standing selections?

The Raw Numbers

Across the last five Premier League seasons, home teams have won approximately 45% of matches, with draws at 25% and away wins at 30%.

This means:

• Home teams are 50% more likely to win than away teams
• For LMS purposes, a home fixture is significantly more valuable

Home Advantage by Team Tier

Not all home advantages are equal. Here's how it breaks down:

Top 6 Teams at Home

• Win rate: 72%
• Draw rate: 18%
• Loss rate: 10%

Teams like Liverpool at Anfield, Arsenal at the Emirates, and City at the Etihad are fortresses. The crowd, familiar surroundings, and intimidation factor create a significant edge.

Mid-Table Teams at Home (7th-14th)

• Win rate: 48%
• Draw rate: 27%
• Loss rate: 25%

This is where home advantage is most pronounced relative to their overall ability.

Bottom 6 Teams at Home

• Win rate: 32%
• Draw rate: 26%
• Loss rate: 42%

Struggling teams still perform better at home than away, but the improvement is less dramatic.

Key Stadiums for LMS Picks

Anfield (Liverpool)

• Home win rate: 78% over last 3 seasons
• LMS Verdict: Premium pick when available

St. James' Park (Newcastle)

• Home win rate: 61% since 2022
• LMS Verdict: Undervalued option vs. struggling teams

Villa Park (Aston Villa)

• Home win rate: 58% in 2023-24
• LMS Verdict: Good mid-tier option

LMS Strategy Implications

When comparing two similarly-priced picks, always favor the home option.

Home advantage remains one of the most reliable factors in Premier League outcomes. Factor venue into every decision, and you'll make smarter picks throughout the season.